From November, the global stock market has begun to decline. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index, Dow Jones Index, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong in October 31 for the 5954 points, respectively, 13,792 points, 31,391 points, but on November 9 of these index was 53.15 points, 13,042 points, 28,783 points. These three indices fell by 12%, 5.7%, 9.1%. and in accordance with, November 12 trends, the magnitude of global stock market decline will deepen.
from November's global stock market decline since the situation is not entirely global stock markets fell into a channel? is not rapid rise in global stock markets over the years the basic pattern of the end? If the stock market's eyes rain form the national economy, the global Is the stock market fell in six months indicates that the global economy has entered a recessionary period? If so, how do we respond?
as early as some time has written several articles have pointed out a global financial market is full of bubble, we entered a bubble survival times. Thus, while in November there has been a comprehensive global stock market decline, but this decline is not only the volatility of the market price is not the cyclical changes of a global stock market, and even if global the index of the overall stock market fell, but the situation is not all markets are the same.
example, the U.S. Dow Jones index, the reduction was due to rapid increases in both the earlier, but also the impact of U.S. subprime crisis More importantly, the dollar's rapid decline. It can be said, serious as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve not only to reverse the cycle of interest rates, but also to inject a large number of financial markets. and these behaviors on the one hand the risk of investors and financial institutions conduct pay, but also encourage more investors in the financial markets into high-risk venture to market; the other hand, creates the conditions for the weak dollar. and the dollar's weakness, both in the short period of time pushing dollar-denominated international bulk goods, blowing a large bubble in these commodities, thus affecting the real economy, also affect the effective operation of the stock market. These are the recent U.S. stock market continued to fall the reason why.
the domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite index fell below last week have been 5700,5600,5500,5400 point mark four integers, 8% weekly decline for the new record of 9 years, 7.56% of the weekly decline in Shenzhen Component Index also the most during the year, turnover is 7 weeks since the end of one week minimum. ended the morning of November 12, and Crack 5300,5200 point mark. For the domestic stock market fell sharply, both the international market impact of the surrounding, more important is the stock market itself is a problem.
can say that the domestic stock market from June 2005 onwards, to October 2007. The stock market index rose more than 6 times. to the end of the third quarter, the Shanghai A share of up to 64 times the average price-earnings ratio, and the end of the end of 2006 and 2005, respectively 33 times and 17 times. 2 times for the previous two years and 4 times. This is close to the 20th century, the Japanese bubble burst in the late 80's level. more inconceivable is that on November 5, PetroChina A-share market, the market value of about ten thousand breakthrough million mark, far more than the world's largest, Exxon Mobil more than doubled. Petroleum and ExxonMobil, but compared to the latter's net profit and shareholders equity is more than twice the oil. Also, the market value of the oil even higher than the Russian one year GDP. Meanwhile, China Mobile, Sinopec, ICBC, China Life and other companies have become the world's largest, the first of the company.
for these phenomena, both with Life goes against common sense, but also from the basic economic principle, therefore, the stock market bubble to inflate is no doubt. Since the great stock market bubble has blown, so the development of China's stock market to a certain extent also in the price adjustment is normal. It is always a call asking me for two days, China's stock market slump that is not the market panic psychology at work. I said to them, in fact, fluctuations in the stock market index is a normal thing. on the rise, the market in a cheers, but then, why no one came out and said the stock market boom will not it? can not afford a down to. can be said that any stock market or other market investors, the market is risky and investors enter the market, must take into account the existence of this market risk. Therefore, the domestic stock market fell, especially great stock market bubble down, not only for the market is not bad, but a necessary condition for the future development of the stock market.
, of course, If the stock market is the real economy from the eyes rain sheet point of view, despite the existence of two major domestic asset prices, huge bubble, but the domestic economy to the good that no one can deny. Bank of the third quarter survey of domestic entrepreneurs and bankers shows that entrepreneurs are optimistic about the market demand continues, the investment will rise. The banker is that the banking climate index over the same period compared to previous years a substantial upgrade. then the main body in the market optimistic about the situation on the economy, why would the domestic stock market index sharp fall, which is basically nothing to do with the surface of the domestic economic entities, but is a serious stock market speculation earlier, so that one of the foam out of it. If the foam extrusion, the rapid development of the domestic stock market will embark on the road. But For stock market investors, never underestimate the severity of the domestic stock market bubble. If there is no out of the bubble, investors and flocking, and their market risks can be high.
the Hong Kong stock market, these days of rapid decline in the Hang Seng Index, both the overall situation with the international financial markets suddenly change, but also with through train Postponed policy. But the latter is the basic factor. can be said that in just two months, Hong Kong stock market index doubled up, the most important reason is that policy expectations through train to a lot of money into the domestic Hong Kong market, so that both the international market funds, local funds or Hong Kong and the Mainland have been pouring into Hong Kong stock market funds, which makes Hong Kong stocks rose rapidly in a short time. When this policy is expected can not be achieved, the Hong Kong stock market is naturally a low tide. but I think the national government through train will not give up this plan, but the system is more comprehensive and looking for a good time for policy implementation.
how the future development of Hong Kong stock market, certainly the issue is only through train? I think, in the current rapid economic development and prosperity of China's situation, even if the through train put on hold, the domestic economy sustainable development and prosperity of the Hong Kong stock market can also provide a solid foundation of development. For example, H shares and A shares in the price, why the same company A shares H shares of the premium would be so big? where both A-share market bubble problem, more importantly, A shares and H shares market conditions differences. Once the A share and H share convergence of market conditions, then the stock market close to the two is inevitable. Now, the two share price convergence, then the opportunities for Hong Kong stock market always exists. More importantly, the future of Hong Kong's stock market do not want to allow domestic companies to enter all of Hong Kong, and as long as access to part of its continued prosperity to the Hong Kong market can not be changed.
In short, the stock market fluctuations is normal, do not worry too much. Moreover, the upper and lower parts of the world stock market volatility, not the same reason, only in the real rational analysis made on the basis, investors can look for its favorable investment opportunities, rather than a a kind of theory or experience to set. especially for the Hong Kong stock market, it is completely out of the past tradition, its roots and the market in China, Hong Kong stock market to determine which is the key to the future trend.
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